A new approach to prediction combines scenario planning and forecasting – Axios

A new approach to predicting geopolitical and business events combines scenario planning for multiple alternative futures with forecasting methods that put hard probabilities on possible events to come. — Read on http://www.axios.com/predict-future-forecasting-strategic-foresight-d0e7a221-d183-4d3d-a963-775660dbb92e.html

Yuval Harari, Elif Shafak, Dambisa Moyo, Eric Schmidt & Others: How COVID Will Change Us – NOEMA

How will COVID-19 change the world? We asked: Yuval Noah Harari, Elif Shafak, Eric Schmidt, Lorraine Daston, Safiya Noble, John Gray, Davide Casaleggio, Onora O’Neill, Jared Diamond, Li Jinglin, Dambisa Moyo, Patrick Soon-Shiong, Pascal Lamy, David Brin, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, Bill Joy, Joseph Nye and Bing Song. Here are their insights. — Read on http://www.noemamag.com/yuval-harari-elif-shafak-dambisa-moyo-eric-schmidt-how-covid-will-change-us/

How global value chains will evolve in the post-COVID-19 economy | East Asia Forum

COVID-19 will likely accelerate the move toward ‘peer value chains’ among countries with similar institutional arrangements. In addition to traditional production factors, the quality of domestic institutions may become an important determinant of a country’s comparative advantage. Nathan Nunn conceptualises ‘contract-intensive’ products, which have complex supply chains that involve multiple transactions at various stages of [...]

A Field Guide to U.S.-India Trade Tensions | Council on Foreign Relations

Trade between the United States and India has grown steadily ever since India’s economy began to take off in the mid-1990s and its information technology sector shot to prominence in the early 2000s. From 1999 to 2018, trade in goods and services between the two countries surged from $16 billion to $142 billion. India is [...]

Who Guards the ‘Maritime Silk Road’? – War on the Rocks

As China expands its global maritime interests, all eyes are on its navy. But Western policymakers concerned over China’s military capabilities and expanding geopolitical role are missing another security solution altogether: Chinese private maritime security companies. Little is known about them, though it appears that the few companies with a public web presence primarily operate [...]

Matt Zwolinski | A moral case for Universal Basic Income | The Critic Magazine

Precisely how large a UBI should be, who exactly should be eligible to receive it, and how it should be financed and distributed are, of course, important questions that political philosophy alone cannot answer. But for most of us, these questions of policy design, important as they are, are secondary to matters of principle. If [...]

Book Marks reviews of The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy, and the Life of John Maynard Keynes by Zachary D Carter

Carter unearths the lost legacy of one of history’s most fascinating minds. The Price of Peace revives a forgotten set of ideas about democracy, money, and the good life with transformative implications for today’s debates over inequality and the power politics that shape the global order. — Read on bookmarks.reviews/reviews/the-price-of-peace-money-democracy-and-the-life-of-john-maynard-keynes/

Asian century began in May 2020 – Asia Times

Asian economic recovery is consistent with success in controlling the Covid-19 pandemic. China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore have Covid-19 death rates a tenth of Germany’s and a hundredth of the rate in the US, UK, France or Spain. Asia’s short-term surge followed its success in disease prevention. But the long-term driver [...]

“Land Apart, Shared Sky”: Sino-Japanese Relations Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic – Jamestown

Over the last several years, Sino-Japanese relations have registered steady progress. Despite the intensified international criticism directed toward the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the administrations in both Beijing and Tokyo seem keen to maintain this newfound status quo. Russia, Cambodia, and a number of [...]